Tourism preparedness cuts recovery time by 1.5x
Tourism destinations that prepare for disruption before it occurs can recover up to 1.5 times faster, according to new research from TOURISE and Oxford Economics that examines the impact of crises on global travel.
The TOURISE study, Resilience in a World that Doesn’t Reset: Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption, analyzed 85 major crises over the past two decades. It found that preparedness, connectivity and traveler confidence increasingly determine how quickly destinations recover after major disruptions.
The findings have particular relevance for the Gulf, whose aviation hubs handle around 14% of global transit traffic. The report uses the current Middle East crisis to model how prolonged regional instability could affect global travel.
Gulf aviation hubs carry around 14% of global transit traffic, making regional connectivity a significant factor in global tourism resilience.
Three scenarios for global travel
Under a scenario in which the current ceasefire holds, global travel could grow by around 6% in 2026. Renewed hostilities could result in a decline of roughly 1%, while sustained disruption could push global travel down about 3%, with weakness continuing into 2027.
The researchers argue that the duration of the crisis itself is not the only factor determining recovery. Restoring air connectivity, keeping travel affordable and maintaining traveler confidence can substantially influence the speed of the rebound.
Average tourism recovery times have already fallen from around 24 months in the early 2000s to 10-12 months today, although complex disruptions affecting several countries simultaneously are beginning to challenge that trend.
Tourism recovery times have fallen from 24 months in the early 2000s to 10-12 months today.
Saudi Arabia is highlighted as an example of destination diversification. The Kingdom recorded 37.2 million tourists in Q1 2026, up 8% year on year despite regional volatility.
The study also warns that reputational shocks can affect demand even without physical disruption. In 2025, unfounded online rumors of a major earthquake contributed to booking declines of up to 50% from some East Asian markets.
